Summary: Asteroid 2024 YR4, nicknamed the “city killer,” carries a 1.5% chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032. Discover why Mumbai is on the impact corridor and what scientists are doing to track its trajectory.
Since its discovery in December last year, asteroid 2024 YR4—dubbed the “city killer”—has captured the attention of astronomers and space agencies worldwide. With an estimated 1.5% chance (or 1 in 67 odds) of colliding with Earth during its close flyby on December 22, 2032, the asteroid has become a subject of intense study and concern.
Tracking a Potential Threat
Space agencies, including NASA, are closely monitoring 2024 YR4 because its impact probability exceeds the 1% threshold that typically triggers heightened observation. Based on NASA’s assessment as reported by Scientific American, simulations of the asteroid’s expected impact corridor have revealed a striking fact: the path stretches from the eastern Pacific Ocean to South Asia, placing densely populated regions—such as Bogota, Lagos, and Mumbai—in potential danger.
A Matter of Size and Impact
The asteroid is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide—comparable in size to a large office building. If 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, the consequences could be catastrophic. Whether the rock disintegrates in the atmosphere or creates a significant crater upon impact, the resulting explosion could be similar to a detonating hydrogen bomb, unleashing devastation over a metropolitan area.
Reducing the Odds
There is a silver lining: scientists believe that, over time, the probability of impact will decrease to zero—similar to what happened with asteroid Apophis. Bruce Betts, Chief Scientist for the nonprofit Planetary Society, noted that in the coming months to a few years, updated observations could eliminate the risk entirely.
International Collaboration and Future Observations
To ensure nothing is left to chance, NASA is coordinating with other major space agencies, including the China National Space Administration (CNSA), Roscosmos, and the European Space Agency (ESA), to refine the asteroid’s projected path. The team plans to use NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope to obtain more accurate measurements of 2024 YR4’s size and trajectory, with further observations scheduled for early March and again in early May, before the asteroid recedes from view until its next close approach in 2028.
As scientists continue their vigilant monitoring, the global community watches closely—hoping that the odds will continue to improve and that Earth, and cities like Mumbai, remain safe from this “city killer” threat.
Last Updated on: Friday, February 21, 2025 1:38 pm by News Week India Team | Published by: News Week India Team on Friday, February 21, 2025 1:38 pm | News Categories: News
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